Future

Today, a friend asked me, "If you know a guy has a history of being playboy, will you let your daughter marry him?"

 

I said, "I will let my daughter make her own decision. Maybe he will change and be true to my daughter? One never know what the future may bring anyway."  

 

Future.

 

Now thinking back, "One never know what the future may bring anyway"  may not be so correct. Is it really true that we can't predict the future?

 

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next minute? Of course!

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next day? To a large extent.

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next week? Most probably.

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next month? To a certain extent.

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next year? Roughly.

 

What about things not around you, the things you don't know about?

 

 

We can all predict the future to a certain extent. The accuracy is determined by only 2 factors : Time and Knowledge.

 

We predict the future all the time. Our actions now are all determined by our prediction of the future.

 

 

But when we predict the future, we often do not factor the actions we take now. By 'we', I mean me and all the people around me. Of course, to factor in all the actions people may take, we also have to factor in how people predict the future.

 

Psychology. Sociology. Economics. Etc.

 

 

Remember? Accuracy is directly proportional to Knowledge/Time. Knowledge may includes Psychology, Sociology, Economics and others.

 

 

Sounds difficult? No. It is pretty easy to predict the future. Imagine you can't predict the future. Everything that happens to you is unexpected. Floor that is under you this minute is not there the next! That would be fun. But you will go mad.

 

 

Time.

 

The shorter the time frame, the more accurate it is. The floor is more likely to be under you the next minute compared to hundred thousand years later. Who says long term equals less risk??

 

 

Play chess. A game of prediction. What your opponent might do next determine what you will do now. Lay a vicious trap for him! 

 

Stock market. 

 

Can you predict what I am going to write next? 

 

 

A famous poker player once said, 

 

"Five minutes into a poker game, if you don't know which sucker you can earn money from, then that sucker is you."   

 

 

I want to be a Forecaster.

 

Daughter marry a playboy?? Will I have a daughter in the first place? Lol!

 

 

Random Ramblings.

 

Stupid

This week has been pretty peaceful so far. Except for the fact that I lost 7 days worth of salary within a few minutes on Monday night.

It was on impulse, based on nothing but the news that AIG received a larger amount of bailout funds. The stock gapped open at $2.77 from Friday's close of $2.11 and shot up to $2.84 a within few minutes after it opens. Then it come down and fluctuate around $2.60s. I bought 4000 shares at $2.68. A few minutes after I bought, the stock plummeted straight down to $2.50s region.

I cannot believe my eyes. This is way more than I was prepared to lose. I quickly sold my shares at $2.53 while recovering from my shock. A quick calculation factoring in US exchange rate and brokerage fees told me that I lost about a third of my salary. I went to sleep wondering if I should quit trading.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * *

I don't mind telling everyone my fiasco. You all can think I am stupid if you want.

I admit I am stupid.

You may think I am even more stupid than stupid if I am not going to quit trading. And yup, I am NOT going to give up trading.

Go on, think what you want.

I have come to terms with my loss. Now I know what my mistake is - I trade impulsively. I am really gambling! Hence this crushing defeat. Now I VOW I will follow my own trading system to the letter and never make any impulsive trades again!

Tomorrow will be better! =)

* * * * * * * * * * * * * *

I have been pondering long and hard on this strategy that many common investors have been using - "Buy and Hold". Everyone adopt this strategy these days - friends, my mom, and even me. "Buy and Hold" works pretty good when the market is good, but led you to Hell when the market crash, as many of you will have experienced now if you did some investing of you own.

Talking about my own experience, 6 months after I bought my China fund, I have a whooping 90% profit! But now, not only the profit was all gone, 30% of my capital has vanished! All thanks to the "Buy and Hold" strategy. I wondered, what could be done to prevent this from happening and even keep the profits. Market timing (as stated in my previous post) , perhaps?

Yesterday I have a flash of insight after reading books on stocks trading! The answer is surprisingly simple! It involves nothing about market timing, chart reading or complicated technical indicators. No rocket science.

It is a simple money management technique called Trailing Stop Loss!

Simply put, it is to constantly set a maximum amount of money you will allow yourself to lose / eat into your profits. A rough example: when I first buy my fund, I should set my stop loss at -10%. That is to say, if the fund loses 10% of its value, I sell. (Rationale behind being, if I lose 10%, that means I am WRONG to invest in it! Better correct it before it become more 'wrong'!)

Then as the fund goes up, my stop loss level go up. Eg. when my fund goes up +20%, my stop loss will be increased to +10%, when my fund goes up 30%, my stop loss will be increased to +20% and so on.

Back to my China fund example: Hence when my fund reach +90%, my stop loss level will be +80%. So when my fund price drop to +80%, I should have sold, keeping 80% of my profit! This is much better compared to the situation now, where I loses 30% of my capital!

Of course, discipline plays a large part - you MUST sell when your stop loss is reached. But the Trailing Stop Loss concept isn't too hard to understand, isn't it?

Now then I think of it, damn! I am so stupid. Some lessons in life are so goddamn expensive!

* * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Change topic: Gundam 00 Season 2 is out! Woohoo!

Intellectually cool. Explosive actions. Emotionally engaging. Wow graphics. Intriguing plot. What more do you want?

 

Oh ya, Madagascar 2 is damn funny! "I like to move it move it!"

 

A LIGHTER LOOK AT MARRIAGE

At the cocktail party, one woman said to another, "Aren't you wearing your wedding ring on the wrong finger?" The other replied, "Yes I am, I married the wrong man."

Man is incomplete until he is married. Then he is really finished.

Marriage is an institution in which a man loses his bachelor's degree and the woman gets her master's.

A little boy asked his father, "Daddy, how much does it cost to get married?" And the father replied, "I don't know, son, I'm still paying for it."

Young Son: Is it true, Dad, I heard that in some parts of Africa a man doesn't know his wife until he marries her? Dad: That happens in most countries, son.

Then there was a man who said, "I never knew what real happiness was until I got married; and then it was too late.

When a newly married man looks happy, we know why. But when a ten-year married man looks happy - we wonder why.

Married life is very frustrating. In the first year of marriage, the man speaks and the woman listens. In the second year, the woman speaks and the man listens. In the third year, they both speak and the neighbors listen.

After a quarrel, a wife said to her husband, "You know, I was a fool when I married you." And the husband replied, "Yes, dear, but I was in love and didn't notice it."

A man inserted an 'ad' in the classifieds: "Wife wanted". Next day he received a hundred letters. They all said the same thing: "You can have mine."

How do most men define marriage? A very expensive way to get your laundry done free.

The most effective way to remember your wife's birthday is to forget it once.

When a man steals your wife, there is no better revenge than to let him keep her.

Eighty percent of married men cheat in America. The rest cheat in Europe.

Marriage is the triumph of imagination over intelligence. Second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience.

 

Life

"Hi, I am JF, and I am a gambler."

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Weekends. Whenever I didn't go out to meet friends, I love to sit alone in somewhere quiet, a cafe or foodcourt, to drink and read, and to think about life. Btw, I just had a cup of coffee.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Life. Work. Money... Gambling.

 

On 22/10, I lost $168 in stocks market (SGX).

On 23/10, I earned $180 (St Engg).

On 24/10, I lost $527 (CapitaComm & ST Engg).

On 31/10, I earned $455 (St Engg).

On 03/11, I earned $70 (SMRT).

On 04/11, I lost $120 (Alcatel Lucent).

Yesterday, I earned $300 (AIG). 

 

Money. Easy come, easy go. People say life is full of ups and downs.

 

How true.

 

(I can happily say that I learnt this without having to pay school fee, yet. Hee.)

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Risk. People think: short term trading = high risk, long term investment = low risk.

 

Bullshit. (Financial planners, ahem...)

 

Investing blindly, OR, not watching your investment, OR, invest but don't know when to exit = HIGH RISK.

 

Nothing goes up forever... Nothing.

 

Ups and downs. Remember?

 

(The school fees for learning this is VERY expensive.)

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

I read one article on Weekend Today a few weeks ago. It goes something like this.

 

"Don't sell now. If you sell now, you are doing what is called 'Market Timing'. By doing this, not only you are assuming you know when to sell, but also when to buy. It is ok if you don't want to invest anymore after you sell. But If you do want to invest again, how do you know when to enter the market?"

 

At that time, I thought it quite make sense, so I hold. But since then, the loss of my Unit Trust has escalated from hundreds to thousand plus. I am trapped. Then I realised something:

 

Ignorance costs A LOT (...and will cost alot more in the future).

 

My philosophy: If I don't know something I need to know, I figure it out.

 

'Market Timing'?? Doesn't sound too difficult, does it?

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

I have some very professional colleagues at work. When I asked them what do they do when they go home after work, they reply they read books on technical knowledge. I am impressed, and a little guilty.

 

I also like to read. Nowadays I read analysis reports, news, stock charts, books on trading, and Batman graphic novels.

 

My mind can never be too focus on one thing. I can never be a truely professional professional.

 

I am fated to be a jack of all trades. (trades... haha!) Sad.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Feel, a sense that many neglect.

 

In art exhibitions, I feel the place's atmosphere and the artists' motives. In nature, I feel the life of the trees and the wind on my skin. In stock market, I feel the pulse and emotions of the players in the market.

 

Greed, fear, uncertainty.

 

I realise, I also feel exactly what the market is feeling.

 

Greed, fear, uncertainty. (Ups and downs... and sideways.)

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

No one comments these days (except for some stupid people who advertise on selling WOW gold, f***). Is it because I can't relate to people anymore?

 

I know I have friends. I meet up with people.

 

But I am in a world of my own.

 

 

Ha! Effects of coffee.

 

Update

Went to the remaining Singapore Biennale place, South Beach Development, today with 2 jc friends. Photo here. (Oh btw, if anyone wants to go can jio me... I may want to go again. =)

 

I know I sound very arty-farty in recent my blog entries. But nope. I am not seriously an arts person. I am not art-trained. As a result, I cannot understand 100% the meaning behind the exhibitions. But I like these exhibits, simply because these are creative things that no one else will even dream of doing. I heard that people comment in exhibitions - "I can also do this!" No. The point is not whether you can do this or not. The point is whether you can think of doing this, and actually do it. This is what differentiate people who can only talk from real artists.

 

I admit I am not an artist.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

The way I "appreciate" the exhibits -

 

First I read the caption, then I look at the exhibit, think a bit... 'hmmm'... read the caption again, look at the exhibit again, and think a bit again... 'Wa sibei chim, good good, very interesting (but I don't really understand)'... then I walk off. Most prob the entire process won't take more than 5 minutes.

 

Time.

 

Inside the exhibition hall, be it City Hall, South Beach Development, Central Promontory Site (at Raffles Place), or any other museum, you will feel that you entered another world, another time-space. At the site itself, time moves slower. Not everyone can adjust himself or herself in the space at first -

 

Some still walk pretty fast around the exhibits and miss lots of tiny details. (I am guilty of that.) Some still keep punching or talking on their handphone/PDA phone, unable to unplug themselves from the real world outside. Some complain that they don't understand what the hell is the artist trying to do and quickly move on to the next exhibit. (I am guilty of that too!)

 

But sooner or later, everyone will slow down their pace, sometimes stop and sit down, to listen to what these exhibits are trying to tell us. To appreciate. Time slows... stop.

 

Peace.

 

Then, you will find that you don't really need to conciously understand what the exhibit is trying to tell you.

 

Your heart already understood.

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Anwz for updates. These days my world have been revolving around stocks trading. Most of the time after work was spent on reading books on stocks trading and analysing stocks and stocks markets. For years I have been trying different ways to predict the future - Palmistry, Tarots, I-Ching etc etc. Now I have decided to put my future-predicting obsession to good practical use -

 

Predict the Stock Market.

 

I will find the secret, the key, the Holy Grail, to unlock this huge treasure trove that is the stock market, one day. MONEY MONEY MONEY!!!

 

Oh btw, I have started another blog on stock trading in Blogspot, consolidating all the knowledge I scraped from the many many different books and websites that I read in one place before I forgot. (Some of the books cost hundreds of dollars in bookstores!) My knowledge repository.

 

Currently it is only for invited readers (as there are lots of copyrighted contents, sshhhh...), and there is only one invited reader - ME. Haha! But if anyone who is also interested, no matter you really want to trade stocks or not, feel free to ask me for invitation. It is hard to find friends who shared the same interest as me to discuss such things...

 

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

 

Sing to the Dawn

 

      

 

I LOVE this song! It is beautiful!

 

"You never know, if you never try, you will make it a long long way, if you believe..." 

 

 

(But the movie sucks.)