Future

Today, a friend asked me, "If you know a guy has a history of being playboy, will you let your daughter marry him?"

 

I said, "I will let my daughter make her own decision. Maybe he will change and be true to my daughter? One never know what the future may bring anyway."  

 

Future.

 

Now thinking back, "One never know what the future may bring anyway"  may not be so correct. Is it really true that we can't predict the future?

 

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next minute? Of course!

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next day? To a large extent.

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next week? Most probably.

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next month? To a certain extent.

 

Do you know what will happen to you and the things around you the next year? Roughly.

 

What about things not around you, the things you don't know about?

 

 

We can all predict the future to a certain extent. The accuracy is determined by only 2 factors : Time and Knowledge.

 

We predict the future all the time. Our actions now are all determined by our prediction of the future.

 

 

But when we predict the future, we often do not factor the actions we take now. By 'we', I mean me and all the people around me. Of course, to factor in all the actions people may take, we also have to factor in how people predict the future.

 

Psychology. Sociology. Economics. Etc.

 

 

Remember? Accuracy is directly proportional to Knowledge/Time. Knowledge may includes Psychology, Sociology, Economics and others.

 

 

Sounds difficult? No. It is pretty easy to predict the future. Imagine you can't predict the future. Everything that happens to you is unexpected. Floor that is under you this minute is not there the next! That would be fun. But you will go mad.

 

 

Time.

 

The shorter the time frame, the more accurate it is. The floor is more likely to be under you the next minute compared to hundred thousand years later. Who says long term equals less risk??

 

 

Play chess. A game of prediction. What your opponent might do next determine what you will do now. Lay a vicious trap for him! 

 

Stock market. 

 

Can you predict what I am going to write next? 

 

 

A famous poker player once said, 

 

"Five minutes into a poker game, if you don't know which sucker you can earn money from, then that sucker is you."   

 

 

I want to be a Forecaster.

 

Daughter marry a playboy?? Will I have a daughter in the first place? Lol!

 

 

Random Ramblings.